Drought worsening across the state
Biggest story currently is the drought that has been developing and intensifying over the past several weeks. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor was released this morning and now has just under 50 percent of the state in drought. Furthermore, an increasing percentage of the state (14 percent) is now in severe drought (D2) with expansion of D2 into portions of north central, northeast, and southeast NE. Preliminary data would suggest that September was in the top 3 driest on record in Nebraska, if not outright driest. It was officially the driest September on record in Omaha and Norfolk. Literally no one in the state has had measurable rain over the past week and with the forecast of no rain for the next two weeks, it seems almost a guarantee that over half the state will be in drought by mid-October.
Pasture conditions are generally poor across the state currently and will continue to deteriorate. Soil moisture in the top few feet of the profile is abysmal across the state and the broader region. For most of Nebraska and western Iowa, top soil moisture is likely the lowest it has been in early October in over a decade. The acute dryness is problematic for emerging cool season crops and grasses. It is recommended that cover crops be watered in with the pivots, in locations where that is possible. Would recommend the same thing for wheat in western areas of Nebraska. Extension educators around the state all report very dry conditions with moisture content on corn very quickly dropping once mature. Harvest of sugar beets in the Panhandle has been halted due to the warm weather as the beets lose quality in piles when temperatures are consistently over 80F. There was concern for soybean shattering as moisture content is already under 10 percent in some of the soybean. Combine fires have already occurred, though they have generally been contained quickly.
24 counties have at least some portion in severe drought
Those counties are as follows: Antelope, Blaine, Box Butte, Brown, Burt, Cherry, Cuming, Dawes, Dodge, Gage, Holt, Jefferson, Knox, Lancaster, Loup, Pierce, Rock, Saline, Scotts Bluff, Sheridan, Sioux, Thayer, Thurston, Washington
Football forecast
Fire danger will be elevated statewide on Saturday and may be particularly elevated in southeast Nebraska on Saturday morning ahead of the cold front. If vertical mixing in the first 15,000 feet of the atmosphere is optimal, there will be the potential to get wind gusts over 40 mph between Seward and Falls City between 10 and 2 on Saturday. The front is now forecast to go through Lincoln around kickoff, which would mean a steady west and northwest breeze during the game and temperatures falling into the lower 80's by the end of the game. 24 hours ago it appeared possible that temperatures could approach the upper 90's before halftime. But the earlier passage should keep high temperatures closer to 90 than to 95, with the high most likely occurring around kickoff. Our football score forecast:
Camille's prediction: Nebraska 24 Rutgers 17
Eric's prediction: Nebraska 28 Rutgers 20
Stuck With You
The current pattern of troughs in the Bering Sea/Gulf of Alaska, strong ridging in the middle of North America, and the Bermuda High paying western Africa a visit is likely to continue through next week. All model guidance also indicates this continuing into the week after next as well. Simply put, we are going to continue to be cut off from the main flow and from any decent moisture until at least the 18th of October. By then it is possible there may be a change in the pattern, which would start to bring chances for moisture back. Until then expect plenty of sunshine and temperatures generally running 10-20F above average in the afternoons. This should mean a wide open window for corn, soybean, and dry bean harvest, though harvest of sugar beets may be problematic for a while to come.
The early portion of next week will be a little closer to seasonal norms, with frost possible on Monday morning in parts of western and north central Nebraska. But the remainder of the week after Tuesday looks unseasonably warm with highs in the 80's everywhere in the state for highs. Highs in the low 90's will be possible between Holdrege and Pawnee City on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows in the 30's and 40's look likely early in the week with lows mostly staying in the upper 40's and lower 50's later in the week. If the last few runs of the ECMWF AI model are right, expect highs to remain in the 80's in south central and eastern NE through the middle of the week after next. Western NE would be slightly cooler.
Temperature and Precipitation Roundup
Attached are pdf's containing the maximum/minimum temperature, average temperature, number of days with maximum temperatures ≥95F, minimum temperatures ≥70F, degree days, and total precipitation for each Mesonet station over the period from September 22-28.
Below are the temperature and precipitation extremes around the state over the past week. The high temperature in Chadron is the latest 100F on record in that area of the state:
Maximum Daily High Temperature: 101F, Chadron 3SW
Minimum Daily High Temperature: 64F, Harrison 20 SSE
Minimum Daily Low Temperature: 18F, Harrison 20 SSE
Maximum Daily Low Temperature: 67, Chadron Municipal Airport
Weekly Precipitation: 0.00", All Locations
Eric Hunt, University of Nebraska Extension
Camille Shifrin, Nebraska State Climate Office
