Extreme drought covers portions of 12 counties
Severe drought currently covers over 75 percent of the state with almost 8 percent of the state in extreme drought. Severe drought also covers over half of the state in Iowa and Minnesota and covers a lot of territory in states like Illinois, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Many areas in the state were record dry for the first 50 days of meteorological fall and this combined with abnormally warm temperatures led to rapid drought development and intensification thereof. At the beginning of fall less than a quarter of the state was in drought. Now only 4 counties in southwest Nebraska are completely free of drought and 12 counties have at least some portion of them in extreme drought. But there is some good news. It is possible that this is the peak of drought statewide, at least for a little while.
Beneficial rains
The Drought Monitor that was released this morning was based on data through Tuesday morning. Thus, it is not reflective of any of the precipitation that has fallen across the state in recent days. For many in eastern Nebraska it was the best moisture in three months and soil moisture did show some modest improvements across southeast Nebraska where totals over an inch were common. Precipitation was less in northeast Nebraska. But many places still picked up over a quarter inch, including in western Wayne County where measurable rain had not fallen since August. Portions of West Central Nebraska also picked up a quarter to half inch, which was the best moisture some parts of the Sand Hills have had in a few months. Unfortunately, the northern Panhandle had less precipitation than what was forecast or hoped for and they don't look to share in the wealth that the eastern portion of the state is expected to get in the next week.
Wet pattern
After weeks of ridging and mostly dry weather, the next seven days may be pretty wet, especially in southeastern Nebraska. A series of upper level troughs look to move from the southwestern U.S. into the central U.S. with some ridging in the eastern U.S. This will give us the dynamics and the moisture return from the Gulf we need to help produce rain and thunderstorms. Several rounds of precipitation will affect the state over the course of the next several days starting on Saturday. The first round will be associated with a warm front on Saturday into early Sunday as showers lift north and northeast from the Southern Plains. More on what this may mean for the football game later.
The second round will be on Sunday afternoon into early Monday as a shortwave moves across the southwest U.S. and puts the Central Plains in a favorable region with upper level jet dynamics to produce thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already put much of central Nebraska in their hatched area for severe weather on Sunday afternoon and this threat could extend east toward western Iowa on Sunday evening. All modes of severe weather, including tornadoes, will be possible. But large hail is the biggest threat. Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms look to affect central and eastern sections of Nebraska on Monday night into Tuesday. Severe weather looks like a low risk with this round and rainfall rates don't look excessive either. So flash flooding doesn't appear to be a big risk. But most of the state east of North Platte stands a good shot at getting a half inch of rain or more over the next week and areas along and east of Highway 77 have a realistic chance at 2" or more of rainfall over the next week. The extreme southeast corner around Rulo has a chance of 4"+ over by next Wednesday morning.
It is possible that an additional storm system may pay us a visit toward the end of next week, which would bring additional chances of precipitation to central and eastern portions of the state. If that ends up panning out, then we may need to start talking about the wettest November on record for some areas in eastern Nebraska. This may still not completely end the drought but it sure would put a big dent in it and put us in a much better situation going into winter.
Mild temperatures
Temperatures will be mild for most of us next week with Sunday being the warmest day as temperatures may climb into the 70's in parts of central and eastern NE. A front will bring colder temperatures Monday in the western half of the state. Highs likely in the 40's west of Kearney. Cooler air will make its way east on Tuesday and then temperatures are expected to moderate by Wednesday. Temperatures for the remainder of the week will be mild with highs 55-60 common. Low temperatures will be mostly in the 20's in western NE and in the lower to mid 30's in the eastern half of the state. Not bad for November but no records are expected.
Latest 70F low temperature on record
Speaking of records, Falls City had a minimum temperature of 72F on Tuesday. That is the latest 70+ minimum temperature on record for Falls City by over two weeks and is the latest 70F on record in the state of Nebraska. Other parts of southeast Nebraska also had low temperatures over 70F on Tuesday, including at multiple Mesonet sites.
Football forecast
The weather for the game won't be the worst ever but it won't be ideal. There is a reasonably good chance of showers moving into Lincoln and the rest of southeast Nebraska during the middle and late afternoon hours. There is even a slight risk of thunderstorms in the second half. Not necessarily predicting the game will be delayed but it's not impossible. Do recommend bringing a poncho and warm clothes as rain does appear to be probable during the game and temperatures likely will be in the 50's. Up to half an inch could fall during the game. As far as the outcome goes, we think Nebraska gets a win and ends its near-decade long streak of being ineligible for a bowl game.
Temperature and Precipitation Roundup
Below are the temperature and precipitation extremes around the state over the past week:
Maximum Daily High Temperature: 87F, McCook Municipal Airport
Minimum Daily High Temperature: 39F, Bushnell Mesonet
Minimum Daily Low Temperature: 15F, Harrison 20 SSE
Maximum Daily Low Temperature: 72F, Falls City Municipal Airport
Max Weekly Precipitation: 2.64", Humboldt 2.2 SW
Min Weekly Precipitation: 0.00", Multiple locations
Eric Hunt, University of Nebraska Extension
Camille Shifrin, Nebraska State Climate Office
