Weekly Update: June 1 2023

Drought Monitor Update

Flash drought, in the form of intensification of existing drought, continued over the past week for most of the eastern 1/3 of the state. The latest Drought Monitor map (based on data through Tuesday) shows an expansion of exceptional drought (D4) into more of eastern and central Nebraska, now including all or portions of Lancaster, Hamilton, Saline, Fillmore, Clay, Merrick, and Nance counties. For some locations, including Lincoln, this is the first time “achieving” D4 status on the Drought Monitor since it began in 1999. Much of the Omaha area is now in Extreme Drought after having its driest May on record. Across western Nebraska, the story has been continued rain and drought relief. A peek at the 4-week change map shows broad improvement over western and north-central Nebraska, with 2-category improvements over much of southwestern Nebraska and a 3-category improvement over Hayes, Hitchcock, and Frontier counties. Some parts of southwestern Nebraska improved 2 categories just over the past week and are now drought free (though still technically abnormally dry) for the first time in almost two years.

Precipitation Update

Precipitation across the state this month ranged from historically wet to historically dry. According to CoCoRAHS data, parts of southwestern Nebraska picked up over a foot of rain (14.11” max) and some places in the Omaha metro area picked up under a tenth of an inch (0.05” min). The month of May ranked as the wettest on record in southwestern Nebraska and in the top 10 for the Panhandle and North Central districts. All of the eastern districts were well below normal but was near record dry in the East Central district. For individual locations, it was the driest on record in Omaha and York, the second driest in Lincoln (by a mere 0.02”), and fifth driest in Hastings.

The precipitation deficits going back to June 1 last year are staggering and, in some cases, historic. For the 12-month period ending May 31st (i.e., June 1-May 31), the one ending yesterday was the driest on record in Lincoln with just 13.67” of precipitation. This is a deficit over 14” and is the prime reason the area has seen a 5-category degradation on the Drought Monitor in that time. During that same period, Norfolk also was driest, Columbus checks in with second driest, and 11th driest in Omaha. Thus, the exceptional drought classification in eastern Nebraska is absolutely warranted.

Temperature Update

Temperatures across the state have generally been above normal over the past several weeks, with most places finishing 3-5F degrees above average for the month of May. Record heat has been avoided in the last week but temperatures in the low 90's were common in the Highway 77 corridor on Monday and Tuesday. The recent stretch of above average temperatures has been good for helping accelerate emergence of the summer crops. But it has also contributed to the intensification of drought through increased atmospheric demand and evapotranspiration. This same pattern in six weeks would lead to temperatures consistently in the 95-104 range and possibly worse in eastern Nebraska, if the land surface continues to be very dry and crops aren't helping add water vapor.

Crop Condition Update

Latest NASS statistics show some winter wheat is around average for heading and 51 % poor to very poor, which is a significant decline from last week’s 36 % poor to very poor. NASS doesn’t break down those stats to a county level but the decline is likely due to the awful conditions in south central and eastern Nebraska along the Kansas border. Nebraska Extension personnel continue to report wheat in south-central and east-central Nebraska being terminated early and used for grazing as it doesn’t have sufficient moisture to complete heading.

The latest NASS update revealed 96 percent of corn planted (near-average) with 81 percent emergence, which is ahead of schedule. Initial condition reports on corn revealed 62 percent as good to excellent vs. 7 percent poor-very poor. While that good to excellent number might seem surprisingly high, that is quite low for this time of year. In talking to rainfed farmers last weekend in northeastern Lancaster County, I got the sense that the corn looked ok all things considering but there may not be a crop if rain didn’t materialize in the next 10 days. Soybean is also ahead of the 5-year average for percentage planted (90%) and emerged (68%). The latest NASS update showed 43% of pastures statewide are poor to very poor. Pasture conditions have improved over parts of western Nebraska but are poorer in the eastern Sandhills according to the latest VegDRI map. The pixels that do show up as pasture classification in east central Nebraska are very poor.