Soil temperatures staying under 50°F
A look at soil temperatures at sites around the Nebraska Mesonet shows that they are uniformly below 50°F. Soil temperatures at 4 inches under a vegetated surface are roughly the same as under bare soil. Cooler temperatures will prevail across the eastern side of the state today and sub-freezing temperatures are likely statewide tonight. Temperatures will start to warm up in central and eastern sections of the state tomorrow and highs should exceed 60°F across the state the rest of the week. Temperatures in the 70's to lower 80's are likely this weekend.
Figure 1. 4" bare soil temperature
The warming trend in temperatures should allow soil temperatures to climb above the 50°F threshold by the end of the week, if not by Thursday, which is the earliest planting date for corn in eastern and southern sections of the state. Some precipitation is possible between late Tuesday and early Thursday in the eastern half of the state but amounts will be light- likely a quarter inch at most. Most places will remain literally or functionally dry all week. Thus, I think there is a good probability of field work starting later this week across eligible areas in the state. Imagine this story will be true across the river into Iowa as well by next weekend. Early planting dates for soybean are still a ways out in Nebraska but soybean could start going in this weekend across the river in Iowa south of I-80 where their dates are two weeks earlier than over here.
As an aside, I am not really sure why there is such a discrepancy. The mid-April freeze risk in Mills County on the Iowa side of the Missouri River is very similar to Cass County on this side of the river. But there may be other factors involved that I am not aware of that offer a more logical rationale. But from a pure climatological standpoint, it is not logical to me why this is the case.
Figure 2. RMA crop insurance dates for corn in 2025
Figure 3. RMA soybean insurance dates in 2025
Soil moisture update
Soil profiles will not be fully recharged anywhere in the state going into this weekend. But the good news is there is more moisture to work with than a month ago. Soils are also not saturated like they are in the Eastern Corn Belt and down into the Mid-South where historic precipitation fell over the weekend and major flooding is ongoing. It certainly seems possible that corn will need to be replanted in places like southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southern Indiana.
Figure 4. Latest soil moisture percentiles
Figure 5. Change in soil moisture percentiles since March 1st
The good news in our area is soil moisture percentiles have improved since earlier in the spring. The biggest exception to this rule would be along the Kansas border in south central Nebraska, which has missed out on the best moisture from the last several storm systems. Soil moisture is generally a little less than it was at this time last year in most of eastern and south central Nebraska but it is comparable. It also is significantly better than at this time in 2023. Unfortunately for the Panhandle conditions are definitely worse than a year ago.
