Warm and sunny
Upper level ridging (Figure 1) will be prominent over the north central U.S. over much of the next week. This will lead to plentiful sunshine, above average temperatures in the upper 70's to mid 80's, and lighter winds for the next several days. A weak cold front will move through on Saturday morning, which will bring down temperatures slightly compared to tomorrow and most of next week. No rainfall is expected anywhere in the state through at least next Wednesday afternoon (Figure 2).
Figure 1. 500-mb anomalies over the next five days.
Figure 2. WPC projected precipitation totals over the next week.
Moisture chances
By later next week, southwest flow aloft will become more prominent and there will be a few subtle shortwaves coming into the Central Plains region by later in the week. This will bring chances of moisture to the region, especially to southern and eastern sections of the state. The CPC does have most of the state in the leaning above average precipitation category for the period of October 2-8. Thus, there may be some disruption to harvest activities in the first week of October. But this is not a setup for a 2-day drenching and there is no sign in the extended outlook for very wet conditions.
Figure 3. CPC 8-14 day precipitation outlook
Warm fall weather persisting
The month of September got off to a cooler start but the past few weeks have been seasonally warm, as has been the case almost every mid-to-late September in the past decade. Ridging is likely to remain a prominent feature over the north central part of the continent for much of the first half of October. This would favor drier conditions and certainly favors temperatures remaining seasonally warm (Figure 4), perhaps well above average at times over the next few weeks. The risk of frost will remain very low for much of the state in the next few weeks. Those suffering from allergies may not get relief for a while yet.
Figure 4. CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook
