Warm and dry
It is a chilly morning across most of the state with all of eastern and much of central Nebraska having the coldest morning so far this fall.
Figure 1. Temperatures this morning at Nebraska Mesonet stations
Temperatures are already rising quickly in western Nebraska and temperatures should easily clear 60°F in most of the Panhandle this afternoon. The warmer air will make a lot of eastward progress tomorrow with highs in the 60's for most of us, with lower 70's possible across southwestern and south central sections. Temperatures will remain mild for the rest of the week, especially later in the week.
Good chance of lower 70's on Thursday and Friday for most of us. Temperatures will start cooling off on Saturday across the western half of the state but should be in the lower 70's in southeast Nebraska. Too bad there's no afternoon game this weekend at Memorial Stadium. Would be phenomenal weather for mid-November.
Figure 2. Expected temperatures on Saturday
End to the dry pattern
A change comes early next week as troughing moves out into the central and southern Plains. This will open chances for moisture across the state and region. Timing of precipitation is a bit in question but the period from November 20-23 looks promising for moisture. The latest ECMWF weeklies shows the entire state and almost all of the central U.S. as being wetter than average. It's too early to pinpoint amounts but the odds are favorable for an inch across southeast Nebraska and a good chance of a quarter to half inch for areas west of Highway 81. For all but the northeast corner of the state, this will be the first decent moisture in at least three weeks. Temperatures likely return to more seasonal levels next week.
Figure 3. ECMWF weekly precipitation anomalies for the week ending November 22nd
Cold coming in December?
There are some signals in the models that we could start experiencing some impacts from polar vortex stretching as we get into the first part of December. If that happens then much of the north central region, including Nebraska, will be dealing with seasonally cold and perhaps even very cold temperatures at times during the first half of the month. December has generally been very mild in recent years, almost un-winterlike, but that may not be the case this December. Snowfall is more uncertain but certainly will be possible after Thanksgiving. Might be a good time to locate the winter coats and get the snow blowers ready just in case.
Figure 4. Projected early December temperature anomalies from the latest ECMWF weeklies
