Hard freeze
A look at upper air analysis shows a deeper trough over the Great Lakes and ridging to the southwest.
Figure 1. Upper air analysis at 6:00 CST this morning
This brought in the most potent cold front of the fall and temperatures are going to be considerably colder across most of the state the next few days. Temperatures will drop below well below freezing across central and eastern Nebraska tonight and tomorrow night, with lows in the teens probable in the northeast corner of the state. These temperatures are going to feel cold because it has been record warm this fall not because this particularly unusual for mid-November.
Figure 2. Projected low temperatures tomorrow morning
Mild air returns but so do rain chances
Temperatures will start to moderate early next week as upper level ridging returns to our region. Temperatures may warm up even more than the 50's currently forecast if cloud cover ends up being less extensive on Sunday and Monday. The mild temperatures likely will stick around for the remainder of the week, especially in the eastern 3/4 of the state.
Figure 3. Projected 500-mb height anomalies next Monday evening
Rain chances pick back up by mid-week as the western trough of low pressure starts entering the central Rockies. This will help induce more rising motion and precipitation chances along the High Plains by Wednesday and further east in the state by Wednesday night into early Thursday. Significant rainfall does not appear likely with this system but a quarter inch or a little more may be possible in the Panhandle.
Figure 4. ECMWF ensemble 24-hour precipitation totals through Thursday morning
More potent storm system possible next weekend
There should be a short break in precipitation chances later in the week before another system enters the region by the weekend. Current indications are that a trough will move out of the southwest into the central U.S. by Saturday and a surface low should develop somewhere between southeast Colorado and western Kansas.
Figure 5. Projected 500-mb height anomalies next Friday night
This will help enhance precipitation chances statewide. The exact timing and placement of the surface low are still in question but a wet/stormy weekend could be in store for many of us. There also is a good possibility of the precipitation falling partly or mostly as snow across western Nebraska and some chances of thunderstorms in the eastern part of the state. Rainfall totals over an inch would be possible for central and eastern sections of Nebraska and several inches of snow may be possible in the higher elevations of the Panhandle.
Figure 6. Projected precipitation anomalies in the seven days ending November 24th.
