Temperatures, Humidity & Precipitation Trends
October 2025 began with seasonably cool conditions, especially behind early-month frontal passages that kept highs mainly in the 40s and 50s across northern and eastern Nebraska, with patchy fog and drizzle near the Missouri River early in the month. Midmonth brought repeated warmups into the 60s, 70s, and even low 80s, especially across central and southern Nebraska, as southerly flow returned and ridging built overhead. Humidity fluctuated considerably higher early and mid-month when low stratus, fog, and scattered showers were present, then fell sharply behind several cold frontal passages, especially during Oct 20–22 when RH dropped to 25–35%, aiding elevated fire danger during harvest operations. The final week turned decisively colder, with highs only in the upper 40s to 50s and widespread fog, frost, and subfreezing lows following a strong cold front that brought a broad swath of 0.25–0.75" rainfall to eastern Nebraska October 27–29. Below, I would like to include two graphics representing the October drought monitor, as well as the mean temperature trends for the month of October, which can help us better grasp the information stated above.
Upper Millibar Pattern Tie-Ins
Weak ridging at both 850 mb and 500 mb supported several warm periods, such as the mid-month surge into the 70s and 80s, when strong southerly low-level flow advected warm, dry air northward into Nebraska. Throughout the month, multiple western U.S. troughs dug into the central Plains, each reinforcing cold-air intrusions. Mid-month featured a deeper Pacific-side trough, with a jet streak aloft facilitating weak elevated convection and light rainfall. Later in the month, a closed 500-mb low near the southern Plains lifted northeast, enhancing upper-level divergence and widespread precipitation on October 27–28. Meanwhile, strong 850-mb northwesterly winds (40–50 kt) behind the front supported widespread surface wind gusts of 30–40 mph and sharp temperature drops.
Fronts & Localized Impacts
October saw several impactful frontal passages across the state. A stationary front early in the month led to cool, cloudy, and drizzly weather in the southeast before shifting southeastward on Oct 6–7, allowing skies to clear and cooler air to settle in. A warm front mid-month lifted through southern Nebraska, producing fog and low stratus north of it and light rain/drizzle along its northern edge. Multiple cold fronts followed, including a powerful surge from Oct 20 to 22 that produced 35–45 mph wind gusts and a sharp drop in humidity, elevating fire danger across eastern Nebraska. The strongest front of the month arrived on Oct 27–28, producing widespread rainfall, strong northwest winds, and widespread MVFR/IFR conditions, with extended fog and freezing fog impacts later in the week.
Precipitation Recap
Monthly precipitation was highly variable, with most locations accumulating between 0.25 and 1 inch, although the largest single-event totals occurred on October 27–29. Early-month precipitation was light and patchy, mostly limited to drizzle and light showers south of I-80 during the Oct 6–7 event. Mid-month precipitation was sparse, with most locations picking up only a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch from weak shortwaves and shallow moisture profiles. The most widespread rainfall arrived late month: 0.25–0.75" across much of the state, with ~1" totals near the Missouri River and into western Iowa, where the precipitation shield lingered longer. Some western and central counties saw less than 0.25" during the final event as dry air undercut the system from the west. The graph below represents the average precipitation for the past month. Notably for October, there was a noticeable dip in precip with much less being seen in the state, compared to other parts of the United States.
Extremes & Notable Events
Notable events included pea-to nickel-size hail early in the month with elevated convection near the Oct 6 frontal zone. Several mornings mid-month featured dense fog and low stratus north of warm fronts, with visibility dropping to near zero at times in northeastern Nebraska. The strongest winds of the month occurred on October 20–22 (gusts 35–45 mph), producing an elevated fire danger during harvest operations. The coldest period arrived from October 29 to 31, when lows fell into the upper 20s, marking the first widespread freeze across eastern Nebraska, accompanied by freezing fog and patchy black ice development on bridges.
Illustrative extremes (from weekly summaries):
- Maximum High: ~82°F (mid-October warm surge)
- Minimum High: 47–50°F during the Oct 27–29 cold spell
- Minimum Low: 25–28°F in northeast Nebraska during late-month freeze
Overall Summary & Outlook at Month’s End
October 2025 displayed a classic Great Plains autumn pattern: an early-month cool start with intermittent drizzle, a mid-month warm surge driven by strong southerly flow, followed by a late-month return to widespread rain, cold air, freezing temperatures, and persistent fog. By Halloween, Nebraska was firmly in a cool northwest-flow regime, with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows dipping below freezing statewide. Long-range guidance at month’s end indicated continued seasonable temperatures, mostly in the 50s and 60s, and the potential for additional precipitation chances during the first week of November as another trough approaches from the west.
