Record warm fall likely

Continued warmth

The end of the work week will bring a brief cool down to the central and eastern sections of the state, with highs in the 40's and lows in the mid to upper 20's for a few days. Coldest air of the season thus far and for most of us on the eastern side of the state, it will be the first truly killing freeze. Bye bye mosquitoes! 

While these temperatures are hardly unusual in mid-November, the colder air will big deviation from what has been an incredibly warm fall in Nebraska and throughout most of North America. Figure 1 shows that almost everywhere between the Rockies and Appalachians has experienced average temperatures for climatological fall (to date) that are above the 95th percentile according to ERA5 data. 

Figure 1. Fall 2026 average temperature percentiles from ERA5. Map generated on Ag Weather's website. 

The colder temperatures will not prevail for long and most indications are that mild weather will return next week and persist for a little while. Thus, there is a possibility of this being the warmest fall on record in the state of Nebraska. The current record for warmest fall was set in 1963 with a statewide average temperature of 55.0°F. That was driven largely by October 1963 still being the warmest October on record in the U.S. and the warmth was insane in much of the north central part of the U.S. 

So far this fall is averaging 61.6°F and with another mild week next week, we will have a shot of staying above a number that David Lee Roth hated as a speed limit. Among the long-term sites, the average temperatures are the warmest on record (to date) in Lincoln, Omaha, Norfolk, Valentine, and Scottsbluff and second warmest in Grand Island and North Platte. It has also been the wettest fall on record (to date) in both Omaha and Lincoln. So if you are wondering why it still looks like mid-October and the mosquitoes are still active, this is why. 

Table 1. Fall 2026 (to date) summary table