Projections of Nebraska's Future Climate
Key Messages
Significant warming is expected in all parts of Nebraska, in all seasons, through the rest of the century.
By 2050, Nebraska's statewide annual temperatures are projected to increase by 5°F to 6°F compared to the 1950 – 2014 historical period. By the end of the century, these temperatures are projected to increase by 7°F to 11.5°F compared to the historical period.
Summer and fall are projected to warm slightly more than winter and spring.
By the end of the century, Nebraska's extremely hot days (90°F or higher) will likely increase two or four times compared to the historical period. Extremely warm nights (low temperatures about 70°F) are projected to be over ten times more frequent than during the historical period.
Under a high-emission, fossil-fueled development scenario, Nebraska could experience over 50 days per year with a maximum temperature greater than 100°F by the end of the century.
Extremely cold temperatures (temperatures below 0°F) are expected to decrease from around 20 days per year to four to seven days per year.
Most climate models project an increase (+10% to +35%) in winter and spring statewide precipitation and a decrease (-10% to –20%) in precipitation for summer months.
Very extreme precipitation events will increase in the future, with the most extreme events increasing the most.
Climate models are used to simulate past, present, and future periods. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is the most recent generation of simulations incorporating greenhouse gas emissions, solar activity, volcanoes, and land use. The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are controlled by population growth, economic development, energy use, and technologies for efficiency and sources of energy.
The simulations used by CMIP6 have a historical period, ranging from 1950 to 2014, and a future period, ranging from 2015 to 2100. The goal is to visualize future GHG emissions. Using these periods, there is a moderate emissions scenario, where carbon dioxide emissions decline by 2050, and a high emissions scenario, where carbon dioxide emissions double by 2050. In both scenarios, there will be an average increase in temperature of 5°F to 6°F compared to the historical period. By 2100, the high emissions scenario shows there will be an average temperature increase of 11.5°F from the historical period, whereas the moderate emissions scenario shows a 7°F increase.
The highest annual temperature in Nebraska's history was in 1934 at 52.7°F, which was the beginning of the Dust Bowl. By 2100, it is predicted to be 3°F to 7°F warmer than in 1934. During the historical period, there were ~10 days above 100°F, and under the high emissions scenario, there will be over 50 days per year above 100°F by 2100. Nebraska will warm across the entire state, with slightly increased warming toward the east. The summer and fall seasons will have the largest warming. Moreover, daytime temperatures will increase during the spring and summer compared to the nighttime temperatures. Inversely, nighttime temperatures will increase more than daytime temperatures during the fall and winter. With cold spells, the historical period had ~20 days per year with minimum temperatures below 0°F. In the moderate scenario, there will be ~7 days below 0°F, and the high emissions scenario shows only ~4 days below 0°F. Cold spells are important for controlling pest populations, which will see increased activity. By 2050 and 2100, the winter and spring seasons will have increased precipitation. Inversely, the summer will see less precipitation. Moreover, there will be more extreme precipitation events in the future. By 2100, there will be a 5% to 10% increase in the number of days between precipitation events.
