Storm chances next several days
The upper level ridge that is currently over the Mid-South region will build eastward over the next few days before flattening out later this week and shifting westward. Nebraska is on the northwestern periphery of the ridge and the worst of the heat will be to our east for the rest of the week. It will still be plenty humid in eastern Nebraska and temperatures will continue to be warmer in eastern than western sections of the state. There also will be multiple chances during the evening and overnight hours of showers and thunderstorms, though locations affected will likely shift from day to day.
The best chance tonight will be across northern and eastern sections of the state. Chances tomorrow night and Thursday may be better across the southeastern quadrant of the state. Storms look fairly likely along and north of the Platte on Thursday night into Friday and storms may be more prominent along and south of the Platte River on the 4th and 5th. Pinpointing exactly where storms will be is going to be tricky but I am confident there will be complexes of storms in different parts of the state on a daily basis through this weekend. The latest ECMWF ensemble does show reasonable chances for an inch (Figure 1) between now and Sunday across the eastern portion of the state.
Figure 1. Probability of more than an inch between this evening and
Wet and sticky 4th of July
Furthermore, the WPC does have the entire eastern 3/5 of the state in the marginal risk for excessive rainfall. The ECMWF AI model is more bullish on significant precipitation on the morning of the 4th and the ensemble is more bullish overnight on the 4th into the 5th.
Figure 2. Excessive rainfall outlook on the 4th of July
It will not be an all-day washout in central and eastern Nebraska. So many scheduled activities during the day probably can go on without issue. Temperatures are going to be highly dependent on how quickly early morning storms exit and how quickly cloud cover can partially clear out. Temperatures may still be around 90°F in the afternoon across the southern third of the state and will be in the 80's statewide. Dewpoints will be more pleasant (40's and 50's) in western Nebraska, in the 60's in central Nebraska, and over 70°F in much of eastern Nebraska.
A bit cooler next week
The upper level ridge looks to retrograde to the southwestern U.S. by early next week, which will push the worst of the heat further west. The jet stream also will be quite far to the north, so even though the ridge will be to our west, we are not going to be bringing in truly refreshing air. Right now it looks like there will be a few chances for storms statewide with weak frontal passages and temperatures remaining mostly around seasonal levels in the mid 80's to lower 90's. Temperature anomalies will be warmer in western and northern sections. Most places will likely get some rain next week but significant rainfall is not likely
Figure 3. Projected temperature anomalies next week between Sunday and Friday
Figure 4. Projected temperature anomalies next week between Sunday and Friday
