Fire danger
A look at the upper level water vapor analysis shows the shortwave responsible for the ongoing severe weather in the Midwest is moving through the northern Sand Hills with the main upper level trough centered over Manitoba. At the surface, a cold front is moving through the state and is bringing gusty winds from the northwest. Much drier air is filtering in behind the front with dew points generally in the 30's across much of western Nebraska. Red flag warnings are in place for the Panhandle today due to the combination of strong winds and dry air. Winds will back off tonight and temperatures will be dropping into the upper 40's (north and west) to the 50's. Winds will also be lighter tomorrow and the fire danger should be much less. Most of the state will also be warmer tomorrow with highs in the 80's under full sunshine.
Figure 1. Upper level water vapor analysis
Next cold front
Another cold front will be entering the state and that will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to eastern Nebraska on Saturday morning. Heaviest precipitation will likely fall to our south and southeast, but portions of southeast Nebraska could get around an inch. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front on Saturday and will remain below average statewide on Sunday and into early next week. Highs should be in the 70's statewide on Sunday with upper 60's possible in the southern Panhandle where cloud cover will be more prominent. There may be scattered afternoon two-minute showers on Sunday afternoon but otherwise it looks dry through at least Wednesday afternoon.
Figure 2. WPC projected total precipitation on Saturday
Brief return to heat
Ridging will be building into the western U.S. early in the week and that warmer air will make its way into the state by Wednesday. Winds look to become gusty from the south-southwest and temperatures will climb into the 90's. Fire danger may be elevated in the western portion of the state where drought is worse and dew points will be lower. The heat may stick around on Thursday, especially in the western half of the state. The eastern side of the state will have a chance for showers and storms on Wednesday night and temperatures will likely drop back into the 80's. Temperatures generally will be seasonal for the remainder of the week with highs in the 80's on Friday and Saturday.
Figure 3. Projected high temperatures on Wednesday, June 17th
Chances for rain return
The upper air pattern may shift back to western troughing and a southeastern ridge by late in the week, which would open better chances for rainfall across at least the eastern section of the state on Friday into Saturday.
Figure 4. Projected 500-mb height anomalies next Friday morning
Some model runs suggest show more of central Nebraska picking up decent moisture as well and some keep the bulk of the better precipitation to our south and east. For now, the CPC does include the far eastern part of the state in the slight risk category for heavy rainfall at the end of the week.
Figure 5. CPC's slight risk category for heavy rainfall at the end of next week
Looking out a little deeper into the crystal ball, temperatures are likely to remain seasonal to seasonally warm as we get into the week of the 22nd. The pattern also looks to favor better moisture statewide, with the most recent ECMWF ensemble run showing above average precipitation between next weekend and June 25th. This is reflective of a ridge starting to build around the Gulf Coast with a more active pattern to its north. Time will tell if this going to be a more prominent pattern as we go through July and August. But historical precedent would suggest there is a chance it will be and if so, the faucet may not have many extended periods where it is off this summer.
Figure 6. Projected 5-day precipitation anomalies through June 25th
