Warm weather continuing
It has been a pleasant weather week across the state this week with plenty of sunshine and afternoon temperatures generally in the 70's. With the upper-level ridge maintaining dominance for a bit longer across the central U.S., we will continue to remain on the warm side. Highs tomorrow will likely be in the 80's across the western half of the state and may crack 80°F statewide.
Figure 1. Projected high temperatures for tomorrow
Temperatures will remain warm (75-80°F) across the eastern side of the state on Saturday and in southeastern Nebraska on Sunday. Overnight temperatures will continue to be well above average in eastern Nebraska through the weekend and some places may have record warm low temperatures on Saturday and Sunday.
Rain chances and cooler temperatures
A potent trough over the southwestern U.S. will slide toward the northeast this weekend and a cold front associated with the southern Canada trough will push through the state during the day on Saturday. The former will open up chances for rain by early Saturday morning across western Nebraska. Western sections also will be much cooler on Saturday behind the cold front. The front will slow down as it approaches southeast Nebraska and may not fully clear the state before effectively stalling out.
Figure 2. Projected 500-mb height anomalies on Sunday
Periods of showers are likely Saturday night into Sunday for much of western and portions of north central and northeast Nebraska. Southeast quadrant of the state likely will remain dry through Sunday before seeing rain chances increase Sunday night into Monday. Best chances of 1-2" of rain will be in south central NE with a wide swath of western and central Nebraska likely to get over an inch.
Figure 3. Projected rainfall totals by the WPC
Unfortunately, the western Panhandle is not as likely to see the larger amounts of moisture. But the moisture in the southwest corner will be welcome as that area has generally missed out on the more significant rainfall.
A wet Halloween?
The middle of the week generally looks dry but the end of the week could be fairly wet. Models are not in lockstep on the exact timing and location of a surface low in the High Plains by the end of the week. But are generally in agreement on broader southwest flow over our region of the world next week, which favors a stormier and wetter pattern. Recent ECMWF AI runs have been somewhat consistent on a surface low coming out of southeast Colorado late in the week and helping enhance rising motion and rain/storms across the eastern half of the state. This storm could be worth watching for the possibility of severe weather and/or heavy rain potential in the Central Plains and Western Corn Belt.
Figure 4. Projected weather map for next Friday evening
The ECMWF ensemble is also showing wetter than average next week for the entire state, which indicates that there is some chance of rainfall amounts over half an inch in eastern sections of the state late in the week. Depending on the timing of the system in the central U.S., it is possible that Saturday evening could be wet for Halloween festivities.
Figure 5. Projected precipitation anomalies next week by the ECMWF ensemble
Mild weather continues
Temperatures are likely to remain above average most of next week for most of the state, especially at night. Temperatures may drop below freezing in the higher elevations of the Panhandle at times next week but central and eastern sections have zero frost/freeze risk next week. Colder temperatures may be coming in after Election Day but no truly cold air is coming into the state in the next 10 days.
Figure 6. Projected temperature anomalies next week.
