188 bpa
The Crop Progress Report released earlier this month showed a sizable bump in the U.S. corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre (bpa) and a significant increase for Nebraska to 188 bpa. This is 11 bpa higher than the estimate in September and it is causing skepticism on the accuracy of the numbers. The Nebraska Corn Board released a letter (see video) questioning the numbers.
For a little perspective, let's go back in time to see how other October forecasts since 1986 matched up with the final numbers. A brown bar means the forecast was too high and a blue bar means it was too low. Figure 1 shows that the October forecast has been perfect several times and in a few cases it was way off. 1993 and 2013 are the most glaring misses. But a miss of 3-5 percent has not been unusual historically. If we assume that this could be another case of a 3-5% over forecast, that would put the yield in the 179-182 bpa range. That is under the October forecast but would be up a bit from the September for the state.
Figure 1. Historical accuracy of USDA October forecast
Could the new forecast be correct?
I want to start with the caveat that I am not blaming the USDA NASS staff. Budget cuts have reduced their numbers and it is possible that they have not received enough representative surveys to give a truly accurate number of the state yield. It also should be noted that a yield of 188 bpa is not a stellar yield and would be a few points below trend if it verifies. It also would be a reduction of 6 bpa from last year. That said, there are quite a few reasons I think 188 bpa is too high for the state.
Probably not
The first reason is drought. We started the season with a large majority of the state in severe to extreme drought and only pockets of southeast Nebraska had any meaningful soil moisture at planting. Much of southeast Nebraska started getting useful moisture in mid-May but large sections of west central and northeast Nebraska remained very dry until well into the summer. By the time the rains did start coming in August, it was too late for any dryland crops or most corn crops grown under irrigation restrictions. So, it would be safe to assume that yields in those areas are well below last year and well below trend.
Figure 2. U.S. Drought Monitor map from July 28, 2026
7 points off trend? (180 bpa)
The Drought Monitor map above from late July showed over 80 percent of the state in drought and over 60 percent in severe drought or worse (~25 percent in D3-D4). Going back to the inception of the U.S. Drought Monitor in 2000, only 2002 and 2012 had more areal coverage of extreme to exceptional drought in the state at the end of July. This year was clearly not as bad as those years for much of south central and eastern Nebraska but for some in western Nebraska, it certainly was as bad or worse. Even in areas that were not technically in drought in late July (i.e., southeast NE) had been pretty dry in the previous 3 weeks and also fairly hot. Between that and a lighter winds, there were definitely pollination issues.
Back to the main drought topic though. If we look at years where more than 30 percent of the state was in severe drought or worse, the best case scenario was 2 points below trend. That would get us to right around the October forecast. In other words, the October USDA forecast is likely the highest possible yield that is possible in Nebraska this year. The median of those years may be a better guide and that would put this year's yield at roughly 180 bpa or 7 points below trend. That is still above the September forecast but well short of the October forecast.
Warm, humid nights and late season heat wave
The other reason that I am skeptical of the October forecast are the very warm nights and humid mornings we had in the second half of the summer. Rains did become more frequent later in the summer but the minimum temperatures were too elevated this summer for truly widespread high end yields. The humidity in the later part of the season also was not helpful for disease control and helped keep the nights warmer. Many farmers had the double whammy of too dry/too much drought early and too humid late. Even those who had adequate moisture during the season still dealt with the warm nights, high humidity, and a late season heat wave that accelerated the end of the grain fill process.
In summary, we managed to deal with widespread drought, impactful severe storms, very warm nights, ill-timed heat waves, and excessive moisture late (for some) this year in Nebraska. There is not a particularly good analog to this year though 2023 could be in the ballpark. That would put us around 187 bpa. But 2023 was much wetter in the western and northeastern sections of the state between May and July. There were also much cooler temperatures at night around pollination than this year. 2023 was certainly worse for portions of east central Nebraska but for many places in the state, 2023 was a better growing season. So it's hard for me to see us getting to only 3 points below trend. I think there was enough moisture in portions of south central and southeast Nebraska to keep the state from being at 2022 or 2012 trend-adjusted values, which would be in the lower to mid 170's.
180 bpa more reasonable
Based on weather conditions alone, yields of 178-181 bpa seem to be a better bet. I also have not been hearing many stories of people terribly excited about the corn yields, which is another reason that 188 bpa number seems like the ceiling rather than an optimal projection. But we will see what the final numbers are in January. Regardless, this year will be an interesting case study.
