Drought improving but not gone
The latest Drought Monitor shows roughly 44 percent of the state is in some form of drought. This is a big improvement from May when nearly the entire state was in some form of drought. Furthermore, the area of the state in the worst drought categories (D3-D4) has now shrunk down from ~66 percent of the state in mid-May to 6 percent today. That's the good news. The bad news is portions of the Panhandle keep missing out on better moisture and the worst drought conditions are persisting.
Figure 1. Drought panel
The outlook shows some improvement is likely into the southern Panhandle into northern Colorado and southern Wyoming. This would be critical for those areas and for downstream water users. The Palisade Reservoir was running around 16% of normal at the end of September and the headwaters for the North Platte are still in extreme drought.
Figure 2. ECMWF seasonal outlook
The latest CPC forecasts and global climate models are generally favoring wet conditions for the Central Plains but are less bullish on moisture in the High Plains. This would deliver drought eradication to southwestern and northeastern Nebraska but not to the Panhandle. Some models (ECMWF) are more optimistic on moisture in western Nebraska in early 2027 thanks to expected enhanced southwest flow from El Nino. Areas of eastern Nebraska could be vulnerable to flooding by next spring if the wetter ends of the forecast spectrum verify.
