Late week rain chances
The cold front that moved through yesterday is stalling out and will start lifting slightly north as a warm front. With rising motion being prominent overnight into the morning hours, there is a good chance of showers and storms tonight across all of southeast Nebraska and portions of south central and east central NE as well. Chances for rain for a broader area of south central and eastern Nebraska pick back up again later Friday into early Saturday. Total amounts between tonight and Saturday morning are most likely to be over half an inch in the southeast part of the state with amounts between a tenth and a third of an inch more common in south central and northeast Nebraska.
Figure 1. WPC's projected precipitation totals
Halloween forecast
Trick or treat and other Halloween activities look good to go on Saturday evening. Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures in the mid 50's to lower 60's and winds light from the southeast. Sunday also looks good during the day for outdoor activities with some sunshine and temperatures generally getting into the 60's.
Figure 2. Early evening temperatures
Soaking rains Monday and Tuesday
A slow moving trough will be moving out of the southwestern U.S. into the Central Plains early in the week (Figure 3). With surface high pressure off the east coast, the return flow around that will help pump generous amounts of moisture into the region (Figure 4) and the vorticity associated with the trough will help lead to an extended period of rising motion and rain across the Central Plains and Western Corn Belt (Figure 4).
Figure 3. Projected 500-mb height anomalies next Monday
Figure 4. Precipitable water anomalies next Monday
The system is not expected to move very quickly so there will likely be multiple periods of moderate rain rates. Western Nebraska will likely get some moisture but the heaviest rain totals are likely to be in central and eastern sections of Nebraska. WPC shows an inch plus likely east of Highway 83. 2-4" will be more likely across south central and southeastern Nebraska according to the WPC (Figure 5). The ECMWF ensemble shows that 2" plus is likely (Fig. 6) across much south central and southeastern Nebraska. In other words, it is quite likely that a significant amount of rain is coming for areas trying to finish up harvest and this will likely set folks back several days.
Figure 5. Projected rain totals through Wednesday morning
Figure 6. Probability of 2" or more of rain through Wednesday morning
The heaviest rain is likely to fall Sunday night into early Tuesday. Rain rates are not likely to be truly excessive but there will be some flash flooding risk in areas getting 3". Winds will be breezy out of the south on Monday before turning to the northwest at a good clip on Tuesday.
Mild temperatures
Temperatures will be generally mild over the next 10 days, with a brief period of more seasonal temperatures later next week. Otherwise it will be very mild (especially at night) this weekend and early next week and most signs point to it being warmer than average for the first half of November in general. Wouldn't surprise me if the first half of November didn't end up being top-5 warm overall and those wanting a deep hard freeze in the eastern portion of the state may be waiting for a while. Cold will eventually get here and when it does, it may be a real sudden shock to the system.
Figure 7. Projected temperature anomalies next week
